Anticipating an Impending Crisis: ARIMA-Based Forecasting of Total Fertility Rate of West Bengal, India

Abstract

This research paper examines the alarming decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in West Bengal, a state in India, which has reached a remarkably low level of TFR- 1.4. This TFR is even lower than that of several developed European countries. Utilizing the ARIMA forecasting model, the study provides future projections of the TFR in West Bengal until 2030. The findings highlight
the urgency of addressing the implications of such low fertility rates on the state's population structure, social dynamics, and economic development. This paper emphasizes the need for targeted interventions and policies to counter the declining TFR trend. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders concerned with sustainable demographic development in West Bengal.